Levine: Put perspective on
parolee data
Extra years in prison not worth cost
February 25, 2010
In his Feb. 11 Vewpoint, James Pecora decried
increasing paroles for Michigan prisoners who have
served their minimum sentences.
He asserted that support for more releases by LSJ
columnist Derek Melot is dangerous, frivolous and
based on misinformation.
In August 2009, the Citizens Alliance on Prisons
and Public Spending (CAPPS) published "Denying
Parole at First Eligibility: How Much Public Safety
Does It Actually Buy?", a report on nearly 77,000
people released from Michigan prisons from 1986
through 1999. We analyzed recidivism rates by
various factors, then placed the results in the
context of nationally available studies. The full
report is at www.capps-mi.org.
The key findings, which are similar to those of many
federal, state and academic researchers, are:
• While 18 percent returned to prison with a new
sentence within four years of their release, only 4.5
percent were returned for a new crime against a
person.
• Re-offense rates vary widely by crime type. People
who commit financially motivated crimes are the
most likely to return to prison. Only 3 percent of
sex offenders returned for a new sex offense; less
than 1 percent of homicide offenders returned for
another homicide.
• Sheer length of time served bears no relationship
to success upon release.
• Although being older is associated with success,
the average age at release was 30.8, hardly too old
to peel a banana, as Pecora suggests.
Crime rates have been declining nationally and in
Michigan since 1991. There are many reasons,
including demographics, economics and changes in
the drug trade. Criminal justice researchers attribute
roughly 25 percent of the decline to the massive
increase in incarceration.
Pecora asks: If imprisonment rates do not have a
major effect on crime rates, why don't we just
release everybody?
In fact we do release nearly everyone, sooner or
later. Even when parole grant rates were at their
lowest, more than 8,000 people a year were released
on parole and hundreds more "maxed out."
The issue isn't whether to release people, it's when.
Prison is for punishment. When a sentence
proportional to the crime has been served, release
is appropriate unless the person is currently
dangerous.
CAPPS research indicates that the gain in public
safety from keeping people locked up an extra year
or two is too small to be worth the cost to other
public services, including police protection and the
treatment of the mentally ill who fill our prisons.
In the end, Pecora asks the question that every
policy-maker and every citizen must consider: How
much risk are we willing to tolerate?
Most crime is not committed by parolees. The
available data suggests that parolees account for no
more than 4 percent of annual felony arrests in
Michigan. And most parolees do not commit new
crimes.
While we are all concerned about releasing people
who truly threaten our safety, we must also be
concerned about unnecessarily incarcerating people
who
do not.
These are not easy choices to make, but the public
deserves to have them based on evidence, not fear.
